Shrimp Futures Initiative

The shrimp fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic are of significant cultural and economic importance and support many fishing communities across the region. These fisheries face many economic and environmental challenges that will determine their future viability and prosperity.

Scientists at NOAA’s Southeast Fisheries Science Center are examining current and future challenges to the fishery in the face of many uncertainties. The Shrimp Futures Initiative will utilize NOAA Fisheries’ experience as well as local knowledge and insight from members of the shrimp industry.

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Shrimp Futures Objectives 

The primary objectives of the Shrimp Futures Initiative are to:

• Inventory the industry’s various visions for future ecological, economic, and social conditions
• Identify objectives related to each vision
• Identify major pathways, impediments, and uncertainties toward achieving these visions
• Identify success stories and opportunities to support the industry

The Shrimp Futures Initiative has two primary components: One is focused on understanding the shrimp industry’s present challenges and needs, and the second looks ahead to the desired future state of the fishery.

Part 1: The Present Shrimp Industry

For the first component of Shrimp Futures, we will:

• Characterize the current state of the shrimp fishery
• Identify the major challenges impacting fishery performance
• Build connections with key partners and agencies
• Identify any opportunities for immediate action that might support the shrimp industry in the shorter term

This component will start with an economic analysis to concisely summarize the state of the industry. For this, we will assess current economic conditions, trends, and threats in the southeast shrimp fisheries. Measures will include landings and revenue, prices and costs, technical and economic performance, and price drivers such as imports. This information will be compiled into a snapshot report to share with the industry and stakeholders. Major non-economic challenges will also be identified.

This component will also involve identifying shrimp industry representatives, defining their roles and interests, and exploring how they are related. We will then identify the resources and activities they can contribute. This process will involve extensive community outreach and consultations, which are expected to take place in 2025.

Part 2: The Future of the Shrimp Industry

In the second half of this endeavor, which will build on the results from part 1, we will organize workshops with state and federal shrimp industry participants, fishery managers, and representatives from government agencies to develop a long-term vision for the fisheries. These workshops will involve the following steps:

1. Participatory conceptual modeling: Workshop participants will collaboratively develop a conceptual model encompassing economic, social, environmental, and regulatory factors impacting the shrimp fisheries in the Southeastern U.S. This model will serve as the foundation for follow-up discussions.
2. Vision identification: Participants will develop short-term and long-term visions for the fisheries, specifying key conceptual management objectives.
3. Uncertainty analysis: Participants will use the conceptual model to classify the critical factors influencing the fisheries, and develop a list of related short, medium, and long-term uncertainties that will shape the future.
4. Scenario planning: Participants will develop a set of scenarios for the shrimp fishery taking into account identified uncertainties. Participants will discuss the likelihood of each scenario and the potential impact on the envisioned futures. Participants will also identify strategies, interventions, and major short-, medium-, and long-term threats and impediments. This scenario planning will include climate-informed forecasts of shrimp resources and the environment, projections of community demographics and port infrastructure, and other risk assessment information. 

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Anticipated Outcomes

For each scenario, we will compare the impacts of a 'no-action' alternative with interventions to illustrate key action points, highlighting the essential adaptations within the fishery and within a whole-of-government approach required for the fishery to achieve its vision in the short and long term. The workshop results will inform the development of an action plan to be presented to managers and decision-makers within and outside of NOAA Fisheries, aiming to fortify the shrimp fishery against uncertainties and ensure its sustainable success despite evolving challenges.

This initiative supports NOAA Fisheries’ National Seafood Strategy and aligns with our Climate Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative by employing climate models to understand and prepare for potential impacts on our nation’s fishing communities.

Resources

• Update on Shrimp Futures Project – August 2024 Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council Meeting
• Recap of Southeast Shrimp Strategy and Planning Meeting – August 2024 Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council Meeting
  • Background Information: Southeast Shrimp Strategy and Planning Meeting Report and Draft Appendices