Climate Change

From the sea to the sun and coast to coast, NOAA is observing, measuring, monitoring, and collecting data using satellites, ships, buoys, planes, drones, sensors, and more. Our scientists work every day at sea, on shore, and in laboratories to track and forecast changes in U.S. marine ecosystems and understand their impacts. We use our Climate Science Strategy to proactively increase the production, delivery, and use of climate-related information to help guide our science and management activities. The Strategy is being implemented through regional action plans. These plans identify high priority regional climate-related information needs and actions so that we can better track, understand, project, and respond to marine ecosystem changes on a regional level. 

Tracking Change

Information on current conditions—and what is changing—is critical in providing sound scientific advice for sustainable management. NOAA provides essential baseline and trend information to inform decision makers about the impacts of climate change on the ocean with data on ocean temperature, sea level, currents, species distribution, and more. 

• Distribution Mapping and Analysis Portal
• Ecosystem Status Reports
• Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
• Population Assessments

Understanding Mechanisms

Understanding why and how the changing climate and oceans affects marine life—and the communities that depend on them—will help us better forecast future conditions and identify how to reduce those effects. We are building a coalition of partners to improve our understanding of how and why the changing climate and oceans impact marine ecosystems. This includes identifying the drivers of change as well as which resources and ecosystems may be most at risk and what actions might reduce risks and increase resilience.

• Climate Vulnerability Assessments
• NOAA Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program
• NOAA MAPP Program:  Modeling Climate Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

Projecting Future Conditions and Responses

NOAA Fisheries and its partners are using a variety of approaches to project how marine ecosystems and specific resources might change in the future. For example, we are looking at how the distribution and abundance of marine resources may change. We are considering how these changes may affect businesses and communities, and how to prepare and respond to these changes. 

Effective resource management depends on robust information about past, current, and projected future conditions of marine ecosystems. Efforts are under way to deliver better projections to help improve stock assessments, assess risks, and evaluate best management strategies under a range of likely future climate and ocean conditions.

• NOAA Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling Project 
• Climate and Fisheries Adaptation Program
• Stock Assessment Improvement Plan
• Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program
• Marine Prediction Task Force Funded Projects

Changing climate and oceans affect nearly every aspect of our mission, from fisheries management and aquaculture, to conservation of protected resources and vital habitats.

To address these growing impacts, NOAA delivers climate services to federal agencies, states, Tribes, communities, and businesses across America. We are responsible for providing best-in-class data and information that helps people with science-based climate change solutions, especially at the local level where planning for an uncertain future is the most difficult and where decision makers may need technical support.

NOAA helps people build the capacity to recover quickly from extreme weather events and changes in climate by providing science-based decision-support tools and programs that promote sustainable fisheries, restore coastal ecosystems that minimize the impacts of storms, and provide ecological and economic benefits. Our Climate Science Strategy, Regional Climate Action Plans, and Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management Road Map will help scientists, fishermen, managers, and coastal businesses better understand what’s changing, what’s at risk, and what actions are needed to safeguard America’s valuable marine resources and resource-dependent communities. We are committed to using the best available science to inform management decisions and support climate change solutions.

Adapting Fisheries Management to Climate Change Challenges

Changing ocean conditions are affecting the location of fish stocks, the productivity of fish stocks, and the fishing industry’s interactions with bycatch, protected species, and other ocean users. Fish stocks could become less productive or move out of range of the fishermen who catch them. These shifts can cause social, economic, and other impacts on fisheries and fishing-dependent communities. As a result, fishing industries and coastal businesses can face significant challenges in preparing for and adapting to changing climate and oceans. And there is much at risk—marine fisheries and seafood industries supported more than $244.1 billion in economic activity and 1.74 million jobs in 2017.

To reduce impacts, increase resilience, and take advantage of new opportunities, NOAA uses the best available science to provide climate change solutions for fisheries management. We are exploring potential management approaches, and have identified challenges and recommendations for improving science and management. In partnership with the Regional Fishery Management Councils, Fishery Commissions, and states, we are taking steps to help fisheries prepare for and respond to changing climate and ocean conditions including:

• Ensuring well-managed fish stocks with a sustainable biomass and stock structure
• Producing regional ecosystem status reports to track and provide early warnings of climate and ecosystem changes in each region
• Using climate vulnerability assessments of major fish stocks to better understand their vulnerability and support management action
• Using scenario planning and other tools to identify effective fishery management strategies for current and future conditions

Spotlight on Science: Next Generation of Stock Assessments

Changing climate and ocean conditions directly impact the collection and analysis of data used in the stock assessment process for U.S. fisheries management. We are implementing a Next Generation Stock Assessment Enterprise framework to address a suite of new demands and challenges. This includes determining how best to account for the effects of changing ocean conditions. The goal is to ensure sustainable, well-managed stocks and stock structure using available climate information.

Spotlight on Management: Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management

Our ecosystem-based fisheries management approach is a vital tool for helping fishery managers and fishermen prepare for and adapt to climate change. It takes a holistic view of the entire ecosystem to more effectively assess the health of any given fishery. EBFM considers the impacts on fish stock productivity from social, economic, and ecological variables—such as changing ocean conditions—across multiple fisheries and habitats. It is a cornerstone of NOAA's efforts to sustainably manage the nation's marine fisheries. Our EBFM Policy and Road Map describe how we implement ecosystem-based fisheries management.

At the regional level, regional fishery management councils develop fishery ecosystem plans. These plans help fishery managers determine whether management effectively incorporates core ecosystem principles.

A Role for Aquaculture

Intensifying droughts, storms, and other climate-related events have revealed substantial vulnerabilities for land-based food production. When we look at the future of our food systems, we have to consider a growing population, a changing climate, and increasing strain on our natural resources. Aquaculture is an opportunity to complement wild harvest and sustainably increase our domestic food supply.

Building sustainable marine aquaculture—ocean farming of fish, shellfish, and seaweeds—can reduce resource pressure and present novel resilience opportunities for a changing environment. While not immune to the effects of climate change, aquaculture producers have more control of fish and shellfish raised in ocean-based farming operations. They can keep juvenile finfish and shellfish in hatcheries longer to safeguard them during the most vulnerable phase of development. And ocean-based farming operations generally require less fresh water and land resources, and produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions to produce food than land-based farming.

Additionally, aquatic crops like shellfish and seaweed provide important ecosystem services, including water filtration and the reduced ocean acidification around farm sites. Aquaculture farms can also provide habitat for fish and crustaceans, increasing an area's biodiversity and benefiting wild populations. NOAA scientists are studying the nitrogen removal that shellfish aquaculture can provide to coastal communities and seaweed’s potential to decrease carbonic acid—the main perpetrator of ocean acidification.

Aquaculture’s role in climate change resilience

Aquaculture supports the United Nations’ sustainability goals

Conserving and Rebuilding Protected Species

Climate change is affecting marine life. Warming oceans, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, droughts, and floods change the productivity of our waters. Many of the marine species we work to conserve and protect, including endangered and threatened species, are already compromised. They may be negatively impacted by these rapid environmental shifts.

NOAA’s sound science approach underlies our work addressing climate change challenges to our marine species conservation, management, and recovery mission. We are working with partners to improve our scientific understanding of the impact on protected species. And we are using the best available science to inform our recovery and conservation efforts and enhance species’ resilience and adaptation strategies. For example, we are:

• Developing a climate resilience toolkit with climate science data, maps, guidance, an expert database, and many other resources for U.S. climate change stakeholders
• Conducting climate vulnerability assessments for marine mammals and sea turtles to better understand these species’ vulnerability
• Developed guidance to inform Endangered Species Act decisions (PDF, 8 pages) in light of anticipated changes in ocean conditions
• Conducting scenario planning exercises to help identify science and management needs to support recovery actions for Atlantic salmon, North Atlantic right whales, and Puget Sound salmon
• Conducting climate-smart conservation training for NOAA staff and partners to help them learn about our marine-focused climate adaptation tools and how to incorporate them into their work

Protecting and Restoring Habitat

Climate change is accelerating habitat loss, disrupting fisheries, and increasing storm frequency and intensity. As a result, the demand and need for habitat protection and restoration solutions continues to grow. Coastal, riverine, and marine habitats provide us with countless climate resilience benefits, from nursery grounds for fish to protection from storms.

NOAA Fisheries has a long-standing history of working with partners to protect and restore coastal and marine habitat to sustain fisheries and recover protected species. This work supports climate-resilient coastal communities and the storage of carbon in coastal habitats. In addition, coastal habitat restoration supports long-term economic recovery across a diversity of sectors. A recent study found that habitat restoration created on average 15 jobs per million dollars spent. Up to 30 jobs per million dollars are created for labor-intensive restoration projects.

We provide technical and financial assistance to thousands of coastal habitat restoration projects. They support communities that rely on those habitats for flood protection, natural resources, and jobs. For example, the Southern Flow Corridor project in Tillamook County, Oregon restored tidal wetland connectivity to more than 400 acres in the Tillamook estuary. This work not only restored critical habitat for endangered Oregon Coast coho salmon but also reduced local flooding and protected more than 500 structures.

NOAA Fisheries has recently completed a climate vulnerability assessment in the Northeast to consider climate impacts on fish habitat. The results will enable resource managers to prioritize habitat research, protection, and restoration initiatives.

We also work with federal agency partners to ensure that adverse habitat impacts to the fish, wildlife, and cultural “trust” resources that NOAA conserves and manages are avoided or minimized.

Climate change is significantly impacting the nation’s valuable marine and Great Lakes ecosystems and fisheries. It is also impacting the many people, businesses, and economies that depend upon them. 

To prepare and respond to these changes, we have developed the NOAA Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries Initiative. It will build the end-to-end, operational modeling, and decision support system needed to provide the information and capacity resource managers and stakeholders need to reduce impacts and increase resilience in a changing climate.

The Challenge

Warming oceans, rising seas, melting sea ice, and increasing acidification are impacting the structure of marine and Great Lakes ecosystems, and the distribution and abundance of species in many regions. These changes affect many parts of NOAA’s mission, from fisheries management and aquaculture to conservation of protected resources and habitats. The impacts are expected to increase and there is much at risk. 

About the Initiative

The Climate, Ecosystems, and Fisheries Initiative is a cross-NOAA effort to build the nationwide, operational ocean modeling and decision support system needed to reduce impacts, increase resilience, and help adapt to changing ocean conditions. The system will provide decision makers with the actionable information and capacity they need to prepare for and respond to changing conditions today, next year, and for decades to come. 

The system addresses four core requirements for climate-ready decision-making for marine resources:

1. Robust forecasts and projections of ocean and Great Lakes conditions for use in developing climate-informed advice
2. Operational capability to assess risks, evaluate options, and provide robust advice on adapting to changing conditions
3. Decision-maker capability to use climate-informed advice to reduce risks and increase the resilience of resources and the people that depend on them
4. Continuous validation and innovation through observations and research

The Initiative is a timely, efficient, and effective way to address NOAA’s requirements for climate-informed management of marine and Great Lakes resources. Working with many partners, the Initiative will provide decision makers the information and capacity they need to help safeguard resources and resource-dependent communities in a rapidly changing world. 

The CEFI is an essential part of the U.S. Ocean Climate Action Plan and NOAA’s Climate Ready Nation Strategic Plan.

Integrated Ocean Modeling and Decision Support System

This graphic shows the major components of the Initiative's Integrated Modeling and Decision Support System. The end-to-end system is designed for innovation and feedback to ensure continuous improvement in meeting decision maker needs.

Regional Ocean Modeling 

This component builds on existing NOAA modeling systems to deliver robust near-term forecasts (e.g., daily to monthly) and longer term projections (seasonal to multi-decadal) of ocean conditions in all six U.S. ocean regions. This nationwide ocean modeling system is the essential foundation for early warnings, socio-ecological projections, risk assessments and climate-informed advice (such as best fishery management and community adaptation strategies). Decision makers need this information to reduce climate change impacts and adapt. The system delivers customized products for specific users in each region.

Information Hub

The Information Hub will provide the data management system and portal to manage, store, and provide easy access to the information produced by the ocean modeling component. The Hub is critical for handling and curating large amounts of model output (forecasts, projections) for a range of experts, such as those in  fisheries, coastal communities, wind energy development, and aquaculture. The Hub also includes relevant data sets, such as reanalyses, and provides web-based systems for analyzing and visualizing the data.

Regional Decision Support Teams

Regional Decision Support Teams provide the operational capacity to produce the climate-related information and advice needed by decision makers for effective resource management of fisheries, protected species, and protected areas, industry planning, and community adaptation. The Teams work as part of NOAA’s Regional Fisheries Science Centers to provide:

• Early warnings and projections of future ecosystem conditions, such as future species distributions and abundance
• Risk assessments
• Actionable advice for climate-ready fisheries management, protected species conservation, protected area management, and community adaptation

Decision Maker Capacity

The CEFI System will increase the capacity of resource managers, fishing communities, and other decision makers to use climate-related information and advice to take action to reduce impacts and adapt to changing ocean conditions.

Targeted Research and Observations

Targeted research and observations on changing ocean conditions and how to respond is  critical to ensure the system can continuously validate its products and improve its operation. This effort builds on NOAA's expertise and strong partnerships with academia and industry.

Contact Information

For more information, contact Roger Griffis.

Oceans and coasts are among the nation’s most treasured and valuable resources. From fish and fisheries to whales, sea turtles, coral reefs and oysters, these living marine resources are at risk from a variety of impacts including a changing climate. Climate-related changes in ocean and coastal ecosystems such as warming oceans, rising seas, ocean acidification, and coastal droughts are impacting these resources and the many people, businesses, and communities that depend on them.

Climate change impacts vary by region, so we have developed region-specific plans to respond to the growing demands for information on what’s changing, what’s at risk, and how to respond to climate-related changes in marine and coastal ecosystems. The plans are designed to increase the production, delivery, and use of scientific information needed to fulfill our mandates in a changing world.

Alaska

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The Alaska Fisheries Science Center is leading the way in cutting-edge research and monitoring to track and project the impacts of changing sea ice and other climate impacts on marine resources and resource-dependent communities in the region. Climate-related changes include loss of sea ice, changing ocean temperatures, changing ocean chemistry and related changes in ocean productivity and diversity. 

• Alaska Regional Climate Action Plan
• The Alaska Climate Integrated Modeling Project
• Eastern Bering Sea Groundfish, Crab, and Salmon Climate Vulnerability Assessment

Climate News from Alaska

• Influence of Climate on Young Salmon Provides Clues to Future of World’s Largest Sockeye Run
• Developing Alternative Fisheries Management Scenarios to Respond to Climate Change
• Scientists Identify Ways to Account for Effects of Climate Change on Fish Stock Estimates

New England/Mid-Atlantic

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The Northeast Fisheries Science Center has a variety of research and monitoring efforts that help track, understand and forecast climate-related impacts on resources and resource-dependent communities. Climate-related changes include increasing ocean temperatures, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, changes in precipitation, ocean currents, ocean productivity and diversity.

• Climate Change in the Northeast
• The Northeast Shelf: A Changing Ecosystem
• Northeast Regional Climate Action Plan
• Northeast Fish and Shellfish Climate Vulnerability Assessment

Climate News from New England and the Mid-Atlantic

• Targeted Climate Research Can Benefit Marine Resource Management in the Northeast United States
• Dam Removals in Massachusetts to Restore Fish, Protect Communities
• Warming Water Impacts Atlantic Sturgeon Spawning, Development

Pacific Islands

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The Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center is at the forefront of monitoring ecosystem health, including the health of coral reefs, to mitigate the effects of new threats. Climate-related changes include rising sea levels, changing ocean temperatures, changing ocean chemistry, and related changes in ocean productivity and diversity. 

• Pacific Islands Regional Climate Action Plan
• Pacific Islands Marine Species Climate Vulnerability Assessment 

Climate News from the Pacific Islands 

• Collaboration Guides Completion of 2023 Seafloor Mapping and Coral Reef Assessments
• Autonomous Vehicles Powered by Ocean Waves Support Research

• Coral Reefs Benefit From Reduced Land-Sea Impacts Under Ocean Warming

Southeast

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The Southeast Fisheries Science Center conducts a variety of research and monitoring efforts to help sustain and restore populations, protect and restore habitats in healthy ecosystems, and understand climate-related changes. Climate-related changes in the Southeast include rising sea levels, increasing sea surface temperatures, extreme weather, and coastal and ocean acidification that can affect the productivity and diversity of the region’s marine and coastal resources. 

• Southeast Regional Climate Action Plans
• Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic Fish and Invertebrates Climate Vulnerability Assessments

Climate News from the Southeast

• New Hope for Puerto Rico’s Coral Reefs
• Warming Water Impacts Atlantic Sturgeon Spawning, Development
• Amplifying Local Efforts in New Orleans to Restore Wetlands and Revitalize Communities

West Coast

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The Northwest Fisheries Science Center and Southwest Fisheries Science Center seek to improve our understanding of climate change on the West Coast’s marine and estuarine ecosystems and the species and communities that rely on them. We use the latest scientific methods to investigate climate-related environmental changes including precipitation patterns, streamflow, water temperatures, sea level, and water chemistry. We use what we learn to forecast likely impacts, recover vulnerable species, and help mitigate the effects of climate change on our ecosystem.  

• Drought in the West Coast Region
• Climate Impacts to Salmon of the Pacific Northwest
• West Coast Regional Climate Action Plan
• West Coast Marine Species Climate Vulnerability Assessment

Climate News from the West Coast

• Diverse Habitats Help Salmon Weather Unpredictable Climate Changes
• Marine Heatwaves Reshape Northern California Current Ecosystem
• Climate Change Affects Different West Coast Fishing Fleets Unequally